Lula won a fourth term Sunday, and Brazilian assets are being repriced at once: the Brazil ETF is down 25% to 27% before the open and the real has lost about 8%. US futures are higher anyway, helped by Brent easing toward $114.50 on Tehran mediation talks.
Research compiled from pre-market reporting (~6:00 to ~9:10 AM ET). Friday the 10-year held under 5% by a tenth of a basis point, but the rotation we tracked Thursday did not pay: staples fell 1.92%, energy led with a 2.60% gain, and Brent settled at $116.72. Oil took the lead back from growth fear. This week tests it twice: the Fed on Wednesday, then Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.

At a Glance: What Moves the Tape

  • Brazil shock: Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.79% to 48.21%. The dollar jumped about 8.7% to R$5.42, Ibovespa futures fell nearly 15% to the widened limit, and the Brazil ETF (EWZ) is down 25% to 27% premarket. [Rio Times, 10/26; Investing.com, 10/26]
  • Futures higher: S&P 500 futures +0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures +0.5% at 8:38 AM; Dow futures about +0.4%. [Bloomberg, 10/26; AP via KSAT, 10/26]
  • Oil eases: Brent is near $114.50, down about 1.9%, after a weekly close at a four-year high; WTI is near $101, down 2.2%. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials are in Tehran for talks. [Trading Economics, 10/26; Reuters via Investing.com, 10/26]
  • Gas megadeal: EQT will buy Range Resources in an all-stock deal, a pro forma enterprise value above $50B. Range is up about 15%, EQT down about 4.5%. [GuruFocus, 10/26; Bloomberg, 10/26]
  • The week: Fed decision Wednesday at 2:00 PM, with a hold expected; Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday night, Amazon Thursday, alongside Q3 GDP and PCE. [Heygotrade, 10/26; Trading Economics, 10/26]

1. Macro Pulse

S&P 500 Fut
+0.3%
~8:38 AM ET
Nasdaq 100 Fut
+0.5%
After −0.21% Friday
10-Yr Yield
~5.00%
At the line
Brent Crude
~$114.50
−1.9% on mediation
Brazil ETF (EWZ)
−25%
Premarket, Lula win

Friday’s close: oil took over. The Dow fell 652.82 points, or 1.23%, to 52,215.16. The S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, the Nasdaq Composite 0.21% to 25,955.34 and the Russell 2000 0.29% to 2,775.90. The chip index rose 0.44%. [CappNotes, 10/23; Yahoo Finance, 10/23]

The week and the breadth. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% for the week and the Nasdaq 0.7%; the Dow gained 0.4%, its third straight weekly gain. Friday nearly three of four S&P 500 stocks fell, and the equal-weight index lost 0.77%. Energy rose 2.60%; staples fell 1.92%. [CappNotes, 10/23; Yahoo Finance, 10/23]

Friday’s data. The S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI hit 56.0, its highest in 53 months. Michigan sentiment came in at 48.0 against 46.3 expected, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7% and five-year at 3.5%. [CappNotes, 10/23]

Futures this morning. At 8:38 AM, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.5%. Dow futures were about 0.4% higher, near 52,557. At 6:06 AM the Dow led, up 0.5%. [Bloomberg, 10/26; Investing.com, 10/26; AP via KSAT, 10/26]

Bonds: sitting on 5%. The 10-year rose 5bp Friday to 4.999% and is near 5.00% this morning; the 2-year closed at 4.686% and the 30-year at 5.312%. CME FedWatch showed about 71% odds of a December hike Friday. [CappNotes, 10/23; Reuters via Investing.com, 10/26; CNBC, 10/26]

Oil: a step back from the high. December Brent settled up 3.14% Friday at $116.72, its highest since April 29, and December WTI up 3.80% at $103.27. This morning Brent is near $114.50 and WTI near $101. Delegations from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are meeting Iranian officials in Tehran. [CappNotes, 10/23; Trading Economics, 10/26; AP via KSAT, 10/26]

Hormuz stays shut. IMF PortWatch logged four transits on October 18, against 85 a day before the crisis. October has the highest count of ship attacks in the strait, and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure continue. [Straits Daily Brief, 10/26; investingLive, 10/26]

[ANALYSIS] Friday the 10-year rose 5bp with Brent up 3%, after falling 17bp Thursday with Brent up 4%. The difference was the data: a 53-month high in manufacturing removed the growth scare. When growth looks fine, the bond prices oil again.

Overseas. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.8% to 62,189.65 on renewed chip selling, and Korea’s Kospi 1.5% to 5,469.47. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.5% to 23,206.82 and Shanghai 0.2%. In Europe, the DAX and CAC 40 are up 0.8%; the FTSE 100 is down 0.5%. Moody’s held France’s rating Friday. [AP via KSAT, 10/26; Reuters via Investing.com, 10/26]

Gold, dollar, crypto, volatility. Gold is near $4,016, up 0.5%, after touching $3,975 last week, its lowest since August. The dollar index is near 101.8; EUR/USD 1.1201, USD/JPY 157.38. Bitcoin closed Friday near $81,230. The VIX closed Friday at 19.45. [FXStreet, 10/26; AP via KSAT, 10/26; CappNotes, 10/23]

MARKET TONE: MIXED. US futures are firm and oil is easing, but Brazil is in a one-day crash, the 10-year sits on 5%, and the Fed and three hyperscalers report within 48 hours.

2. Economic Calendar

Release / EventTime (ET)Why It Matters
US economic dataNone majorA quiet day for data. The session trades on Brazil, oil and positioning before Wednesday.
2-year note auction ($69B)1:00 PMTests demand for short-dated debt two days before the Fed. A weak result would add to the December hike case.
Earnings after the closeAfter 4:00 PMNucor, Principal Financial and Brown & Brown. Verizon reported this morning.
Fed speakersNoneBlackout before the October 27–28 meeting. A hold at 3.75–4.00% is expected Wednesday at 2:00 PM, with about 88% odds; markets price roughly 71% to 80% odds of a December hike.
Rest of the weekTue to FriTuesday: durable goods, consumer confidence (80.5 expected), Israeli election. Wednesday: Fed, Bank of Canada, UK budget. Thursday: Q3 GDP (about 3% expected), core PCE (+0.3% expected), ECB. Friday: employment cost index.

[ANALYSIS] Friday’s 4.7% one-year inflation expectation and a 53-month PMI high give Fed Chair Kevin Warsh room to keep December live. The hold is priced; the press conference is the event. [Heygotrade, 10/26; Rio Times, 10/26; CappNotes, 10/23; stockti, 10/26]

3. Earnings Spotlight

VZ Verizon Communications · Telecom
About +2.4% premarket
Reported: adjusted EPS $1.31 vs about $1.28 expected. Revenue $34.31B vs $34.77B expected, a miss of about $460M. Adjusted EBITDA rose 8.0% to a record $13.8B. Postpaid phone net additions were 406,000, its best third quarter in five years. [Verizon via GlobeNewswire, 10/26; Investing.com, 10/26]
Guidance: raised. 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.04–$5.06 vs $5.02 consensus, and a higher postpaid net-add outlook. It also signed a $2B+ distributed-compute agreement with AWS. [Investing.com, 10/26; GuruFocus, 10/26]
Earnings Quality: MIXED A small EPS beat and a raise on a revenue miss; GAAP EPS was not in our sources.
[ANALYSIS] AT&T fell 7.96% and T-Mobile 7.71% Friday on SpaceX’s carrier plans. Verizon answers with subscribers: record EBITDA and strong phone adds. A rebound proves the carriers are still growing; it does not price the competitor.
Wait for Open

[ANALYSIS] This is the heaviest week of the season, with about a third of the S&P 500 reporting. Meta already showed the bar: it raised its revenue guide and fell 7% on cash flow. Microsoft and Alphabet on Wednesday night must show revenue outrunning capex, not just a beat. [Reuters via Investing.com, 10/26]

4. Pre-Market Movers: Upside

RRC Range Resources · Natural Gas
About +15% premarket
Catalyst: EQT will acquire Range for 0.987 EQT shares per Range share, a 21% premium to Friday’s $45.52 close, or about $12.8B in equity. The combined company produces more than 9 Bcfe a day; base synergies are $325M a year. Closing is expected in the first quarter of 2027. [Range Resources 8-K, 10/26; GuruFocus, 10/26]
Signal Check: Signed, all-stock deal. The target now trades on EQT’s price, not its own.
[ANALYSIS] With EQT down about 4.5%, the stock-for-stock value of the premium shrinks. The upside from here is the spread, not the gas price.
Avoid Chasing
SGRY Surgery Partners · Health Care Services
About +21% to +25% premarket, ~$20
Catalyst: the Financial Times reported Sunday that Bon Secours Mercy Health is nearing a take-private of Surgery Partners valued at about $6B. [Benzinga, 10/26; Investing.com, 10/26]
Signal Check: Reports differ on status: one describes an agreed deal, another a deal that is near. No per-share price was in our sources.
[ANALYSIS] Without a signed price, the gap is a bet on terms. The company rejected a Bain approach at $25.75 a share in January 2025, which sets a reference point above today’s price.
Wait for Open
XNCR Xencor · Biotech
About +27% to +31% premarket, ~$32
Catalyst: at ESMO on Sunday, Xencor presented Phase 1 data for XmAb819 in advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma, with a 45.5% confirmed overall response rate. [Benzinga, 10/26]
Signal Check: Real data, but early-stage and from a small trial.
[ANALYSIS] Phase 1 response rates often fall in larger trials. The same conference is taking 9% off Moderna this morning: biotech gaps on data reprice fast in both directions.
Momentum Play
TSLA Tesla · Autos / Autonomy
About +2.4% premarket
Catalyst: Barclays upgraded Tesla to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its target to $450 from $370; Mizuho raised its target to $460. Tesla closed Friday at $372.22, down 0.63%. [Heygotrade, 10/26; Edaface, 10/26]
Signal Check: Real analyst news, no new company data. The cases rest on 1.74 million Full Self-Driving subscriptions and a Cybercab launch in Dallas next month.
[ANALYSIS] Tesla cut 2026 capex to about $20B last week and fell. An upgrade is sentiment; the stock still trades with the AI spenders this week.
Momentum Play
SPCX SpaceX · Space / AI Compute
About +1.9% premarket, ~$149.12
Catalyst: SpaceX secured $40B of debt financing for GPU purchases, and Bernstein raised its target to $268 from $248. [Investing.com, 10/26]
Signal Check: Real news. The raise was reported in talks on October 6, with Apollo leading and about $30B in investment-grade debt. [investingLive, 10/07]
[ANALYSIS] SpaceX can borrow $40B while CoreWeave’s 2032 bonds trade near distressed levels. Capital for AI is not scarce for everyone; it is concentrating.
Wait for Open

5. Pre-Market Movers: Downside

EWZ · NU · PBR · STNE Brazil ETF and ADRs · Brazil
EWZ −25% to −27%; NU −25%; PBR −22%; STNE −34.7%
Catalyst: Lula won Sunday’s runoff after trailing in the first round; markets had positioned for a Flávio Bolsonaro win with spending cuts and deregulation. The dollar jumped about 8.7% to R$5.42 and Ibovespa futures fell nearly 15%. Ambev is down 12% to 18%, MercadoLibre about 10.9%. [Rio Times, 10/26; Investing.com, 10/26; AP via KSAT, 10/26]
Damage Assessment: A policy repricing, not a credit event. B3 widened the limits for one day: dollar futures to 8.4% and the Ibovespa to 15%.
[ANALYSIS] The selling unwinds a reform trade built since October 4. US premarket prices are thin and often overshoot local markets. Wait for Lula’s first fiscal signals and for the B3 close.
Wait for Clarity
MRNA Moderna · Biotech
About −8% to −9.3% premarket
Catalyst: the full Phase 3 melanoma data for its cancer vaccine with Merck showed a 42% cut in the risk of recurrence or death, below the 49% seen in Phase 2b. The selling began Thursday, when the results leaked. [Investing.com, 10/26; Benzinga, 10/26]
Damage Assessment: The trial still succeeded. The issue is a valuation built on the better number after a rally of more than 600% this year.
[ANALYSIS] The delta rule in biotech: positive data that misses the priced-in result is sold. Bounces are likely to meet sellers until a new catalyst resets the bar.
Dead Cat Watch
EQT EQT Corp. · Natural Gas
About −4.5% premarket
Catalyst: buyer in the Range Resources deal, paying a 21% premium in stock. It would become the largest US natural gas producer with more than 30 years of inventory. [GuruFocus, 10/26; Range Resources 8-K, 10/26]
Damage Assessment: One-time dilution, not new debt. The all-stock structure keeps the balance sheet intact, and $325M of synergies is the payback.
[ANALYSIS] Since early October the market has charged buyers and paid targets. An all-stock buyer with gas demand rising from AI power is the case where that discount can be overdone.
Possible Entry
FICO Fair Isaac · Credit Scoring
About −4.5% premarket
Catalyst: Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Equal Weight and cut its target to $735. FICO also launched a $10 bundled score program. [Investing.com, 10/26]
Damage Assessment: An analyst call plus a pricing move. Our sources do not say how the bundle changes revenue per score.
[ANALYSIS] The stock has been a pricing-power story. A low-price bundle can grow volume or signal pressure on price; the next quarter will show which.
Wait for Clarity
CRWV · IREN · NBIS AI Neoclouds · AI Infrastructure
CRWV −5%; IREN −4%; NBIS −3.8%
Catalyst: lower after SpaceX’s $40B debt raise for GPUs. [AP via KSAT, 10/26]
Damage Assessment: Competitive and financial. A deep-pocketed buyer of compute competes for the same chips and the same lenders.
[ANALYSIS] The credit audit we have tracked since October 15 started with CoreWeave. If the largest borrowers take the capital, smaller ones pay more for what is left.
Dead Cat Watch

6. Sector Rotation Radar

STRONG: Energy and Natural Gas

Energy led Friday with a 2.60% gain as Brent settled at $116.72; this morning EQT and Range create the largest US gas producer. Durability: tied to oil; Tehran mediation pulled Brent down about 1.9% overnight, so the bid fades if talks progress. [CappNotes, 10/23; Trading Economics, 10/26]

WEAK: Brazil and Latin America

The Brazil ETF is down 25% to 27% and the real about 8% on Lula’s win. Durability: the first-day crash prices the lost reform trade; follow-through depends on fiscal policy, not the vote. [Rio Times, 10/26]

[ANALYSIS] Friday reversed Thursday’s defensive rotation: staples fell 1.92% after rising 3.31%. When the 10-year rises with oil, staples lose their bond-proxy bid.

7. Today’s Session Playbook

  1. Data: none major; the 2-year auction at 1:00 PM. $69B of notes two days before the Fed. A tail would add to the 71% to 80% December hike odds.
  2. Top story: does Brazil stay contained? US futures are higher despite EWZ’s 25% gap. Watch MercadoLibre, Nu and the real at the B3 close for signs the selling spreads to other emerging markets.
  3. S&P 500 levels: futures imply an open near 7,645. Support is 7,623.68, Friday’s close, then 7,600; resistance is 7,663.43, then 7,757.17.
  4. Event risk: Tehran and the Fed. Mediation talks pulled Brent toward $114.50, but Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue. Wednesday’s Fed and the Microsoft and Alphabet reports follow; positioning into them can cap rallies.
  5. Under-the-radar: Brazil’s diesel subsidy lapses today. The 2.12 real per liter support ends with Brent near $117 at Friday’s high, which puts Petrobras pricing in play under a government markets just repriced. [Rio Times, 10/26]
The Weekly Edge · [ANALYSIS] Hypothesis only, not a recommendation
The bond’s fear bid lasted one day: when the PMI showed growth, oil set the yield again, and the rotation needs weak data to keep paying

Friday our research set the test: if the 10-year held under 5% through the PMIs and Michigan, rotation would keep paying staples, utilities, towers and small caps. The yield held, at 4.999%, but the rotation did not. Staples fell 1.92%, the equal-weight index 0.77% and the Russell 0.29%; energy led with 2.60%. Manufacturing PMI hit a 53-month high, one-year inflation expectations stood at 4.7%, and Brent settled at $116.72. The 10-year rose 5bp with oil. Thursday’s growth fear needed weak growth, and Friday did not supply it.

Our Friday calls: Robert Half, our Momentum Play, rose 21.74%: our best call. Crown Castle and American Tower, Wait for Open, closed up 9.06% and 4.08%, so the open confirmed them; SK hynix’s ADR rose about 4%. AT&T and T-Mobile, Wait for Clarity, fell 7.96% and 7.71%; waiting was right. Bloom Energy, Wait for Open while up 2% premarket, fell 11%: the open did its job. American Express, Western Digital, Newmont and Meta, all Wait for Clarity, fell about 4%, 2.5%, 4.5% and 1%. The S&P 500 broke our 7,659.44 support and held 7,600. Moody’s held France, so the haven bid we flagged did not come. We could not confirm Friday closes for RingCentral, Autoliv or SLB. [CappNotes, 10/23; Yahoo Finance, 10/23; Reuters via Investing.com, 10/26]

The hypothesis now: the bond prices whichever risk the latest data make larger. Weak growth data let it ignore oil, as on October 15 and 22; strong growth data hand the yield back to Brent, as on October 7 and Friday. That makes this week binary. A Fed that keeps December live, a firm Q3 GDP near 3% and Brent above $115 put the 10-year over 5% and end the defensive rotation. A soft core PCE and Tehran progress that takes Brent under $110 restart it. Brazil is a reminder of a cost we have not priced in the US: positioning built on one political outcome. Investors, and we, should watch the 10-year against 5% and Microsoft and Alphabet’s revenue against their capex, not the size of the beats.

Sources

CappNotes: Friday close, weekly moves, sectors, breadth, yields, commodities, FX, VIX, PMI, Michigan, FedWatch and stock closes. Yahoo Finance: Friday close and stock moves. Bloomberg, AP via KSAT, Reuters via Investing.com, Investing.com: futures, yields, oil, FX, Asia, Europe, Brazil and premarket movers. CNBC: Treasury yields. Trading Economics: Brent and calendar. FXStreet: gold and the dollar index. Rio Times: Brazil election result, real, Ibovespa limits, diesel subsidy and calendar. investingLive: Asia session and SpaceX financing. Straits Daily Brief: Hormuz transits and attacks. Benzinga: premarket movers, Surgery Partners, Xencor and Moderna. GuruFocus, GlobeNewswire: Verizon and Range Resources. Heygotrade, Edaface: Tesla and the week ahead. stockti: earnings calendar. Company filings (8-K): Range Resources. All prices and figures are pre-market or prior-session snapshots (~6:00 to ~9:10 AM ET) and may have changed by the open.

Important Disclaimer

FOR INFORMATIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This document is prepared by ACapital Group LLC and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice, nor a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security. All data is drawn from publicly available information believed reliable but not guaranteed. Pre-market prices and figures reflect conditions at the time of research and may have changed materially by the open. Verdict tags are analytical frameworks, not trade signals. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before acting.

ACAPITAL GROUP · Institutional Research · Informational use only, not investment advice