Morning Brief
The BOJ Hikes Too, Buffett Steps Down, and Trump Softens His Fed Complaint: A Landmark Week Closes
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 basis points to 1.25% early this morning, treated by markets as close to a formality, with Governor Ueda's tone the real...
The Fed Decides Today: 92% Odds of the First Hike Since 2023, and the 10-Year Just Crossed 5%
The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting this afternoon, with rate futures pricing a 92% probability of a quarter-point hike to 3.75% to...
Three AI CEOs Just Called for a Slowdown, Trump Said No, and Chip Stocks Are Tumbling Into FOMC Week
Anthropic's Dario Amodei, OpenAI's Sam Altman, and xAI's Elon Musk publicly backed calls to slow AI development over the weekend, following a researcher's...
Oracle's Clean Beat and Iran-Oman Talks Snap a Four-Day Losing Streak, but CPI Is the Real Test Today
Futures are bouncing after the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower for a fourth straight day Thursday, the S&P's longest losing streak since early March,...
Trump Says the War Ends in “Weeks.” A Senior Iranian Official Says Tehran Is Ready for “More Intense War.” Both Can't Be Right.
Wednesday, President Trump downplayed rising oil prices and predicted the conflict would end soon, telling reporters “I think the war is going to end...
Oil Hits $100 for the First Time in Over a Month, and the 10-Year Just Closed at Its Highest Level Since 2023
The conflict this brief has tracked for seven months entered a genuinely new phase over the past three sessions. The US struck three Iranian oil tankers over...
Payrolls Crushed Expectations at +162,000, and Futures Are Diverging on What That Means for the Fed
August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly triple the roughly 53,000 to 58,000 economists expected and the strongest monthly gain since March, while July was...
Trump Calls the Iran Strikes a “Love Tap” While the US Hits “Very Hard”: Markets Are Wavering on Which Description to Believe
Oil has gained roughly 9% over three sessions, pushing WTI near $91 and Brent to a settle just below $96 Wednesday, even as Trump offered genuinely...
The 10-Year Just Hit a Two-Year High, and ADP's Weakest Report Since January Landed the Same Morning
Private payrolls grew just 38,000 in August, well below the roughly 48,000 expected and the weakest pace since January, while the 10-year Treasury yield...