Morning Brief
Palantir Broke the Rule: A 93% Growth Quarter That the Market Actually Rewarded, and the Dow at a Record
All season, a beat was not enough. Then Palantir grew revenue 93%, raised full-year guidance by $500M, posted a Rule of 40 score of 155%, and jumped 16%. The...
Trump Called Off the Strikes: Oil Slides, Yields Ease, and August Opens on a Peace Trade Into the Jobs Report
The weekend delivered the de-escalation the tape had been begging for. Trump called off a “massive” attack on Iran and announced Hormuz talks for Monday,...
Amazon Passed the Test, Apple Failed It: The Invoice Thesis Closes the Month With a Clean Sweep
Amazon grew AWS 37%, raised capex to $220B, and jumped 13% because the market saw the return. Apple beat on iPhone but guided weak on supply constraints and...
The Invoice, Settled: Microsoft’s Azure Bought an 8% Rally, Meta’s 91% Cash-Flow Collapse Cost 8%
The thesis this brief has tracked for four weeks resolved in a single night. Microsoft grew Azure 43% and rose 8%. Meta’s free cash flow fell 91% to $784M on...
Oil Gapped Below $90 and the Market Exhaled: A Relief Rally Into the Busiest Week of the Quarter
The US paused its strikes on Iran over the weekend, Brent fell as much as 7.4% below $90, Treasury yields dropped, and futures surged with the Nasdaq 100 up...
Korea Hit the Circuit Breakers, and Intel’s Best Quarter Since 2011 Bought a 3% Move
Thursday was the reckoning: the Magnificent Seven shed nearly $800B, Tesla fell 14.5%, and Brent topped $100 for the first time since May. Overnight, Seoul...
The $200 Billion Invoice: Alphabet’s Cash Flow Turned Negative, and Korea Rallied
Google Cloud grew 82% to $24.8B with operating margin at 35.6%, revenue beat by $2.9B, and the stock still fell 4%, because capex hit $44.9B and free cash flow...
The Magnificent Bar: Alphabet and Tesla Report Into a Market That No Longer Rewards a Beat
The chip rebound had legs Tuesday, lifting the S&P 0.89% and the Nasdaq 100 nearly 2%. Now oil is back above $93 on an 11th night of strikes, futures are red,...
Earnings Beat the War: Chips Revive, 3M and GM Deliver, and the Index Keeps Drifting
The US struck Iran for a tenth consecutive night, Brent sits near $90, and Washington opened a tariff front against Canada. Futures are green anyway, led by a...
Cool CPI Lights the Fuse: ASML Roars, PayPal Pops on a $53B Bid, and a Water Stock Drowns
Inflation blinks first. June CPI posts its first monthly decline since 2020 and guts near-term hike bets, putting a bid under risk. ASML’s second guidance...