Carlos Artiles
Trump Says the War Ends in “Weeks.” A Senior Iranian Official Says Tehran Is Ready for “More Intense War.” Both Can't Be Right.
Wednesday, President Trump downplayed rising oil prices and predicted the conflict would end soon, telling reporters “I think the war is going to end...
Oil Hits $100 for the First Time in Over a Month, and the 10-Year Just Closed at Its Highest Level Since 2023
The conflict this brief has tracked for seven months entered a genuinely new phase over the past three sessions. The US struck three Iranian oil tankers over...
AI's $7 Trillion Infrastructure Boom Is Sitting on a $40 Trillion Financial Fault Line
This could become the defining macroeconomic tension of the decade. The United States is building AI infrastructure at a historic pace. Data centers, power...
Payrolls Crushed Expectations at +162,000, and Futures Are Diverging on What That Means for the Fed
August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, nearly triple the roughly 53,000 to 58,000 economists expected and the strongest monthly gain since March, while July was...
Trump Calls the Iran Strikes a “Love Tap” While the US Hits “Very Hard”: Markets Are Wavering on Which Description to Believe
Oil has gained roughly 9% over three sessions, pushing WTI near $91 and Brent to a settle just below $96 Wednesday, even as Trump offered genuinely...
The 10-Year Just Hit a Two-Year High, and ADP's Weakest Report Since January Landed the Same Morning
Private payrolls grew just 38,000 in August, well below the roughly 48,000 expected and the weakest pace since January, while the 10-year Treasury yield...
Trump Calls Iran “Totally Defeated” for What May Be the Tenth Time Since March, and Oil Doesn't Believe Him
Brent crude topped $92 and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.75% as September opens with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures all lower. Trump repeated a...
Trade Wars, Dollar Risk, AI Leverage, and the K-Shaped Economy
The global economy is being rewired in real time. Start with a tiny metal striker inside a car door. It may cross the Detroit-Windsor border four, five, or six...
Warsh's “Discipline, Not Decision” Turned Out to Be Hawkish, and Iran Just Ended Weeks of Calm
September rate-hike odds jumped from 35.4% Thursday to 57.5% after Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote, a genuinely hawkish surprise from a chair whose entire brand...